Seasonal Prediction of Rainfall over Cherthala region of Kerala through stepwise Singular Value Decomposition

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Prameela S. Bhanu, et. al.


In this study, an attempt has been made to predict summer monsoon rainfall over Cherthala region of Alappuzha district of Kerala. For this purpose, rainfall datasets from 1991 to 2014 have been utilized from the Kerala government. The rainfall dataset act as the dependent variable while the sea surface temperature (SST), ocean heat content (OHC) and wind at different locations act as independent variables. A mathematical model based on singular value decomposition multiple linear regression approach has been employed here. Sixty-three models are constructed by taking combinations of different parameters at a time. The accuracy of the forecast has been tested through root mean square error (RMSE). Results suggest that the best model is the prediction given by taking the ocean heat content (OHC) in the 0-50N, 500E-750E with an RMSE of 1.03mm/day. The study implies that OHC can be utilized to predict rainfall over Cherthala region

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