An approach for two-dimensional convolutional neural networks for hourly passenger boarding demand prediction based on uneven smart-card data

Abstract

An invaluable resource for understanding passenger boarding patterns and forecasting future travel demand is the tap-on smart-card data. Positive instances, on the other hand—boarding at a given bus stop at a certain time—are less common than negative instances when looking at the smart-card data (or instances) by boarding stops and by time of day. Machine learning algorithms that are used to estimate hourly boarding numbers at a certain location have been shown to be much less accurate when the data is imbalanced. Before using the smart-card data to forecast bus boarding demand, this research tackles the problem of data imbalance in the data. To create fake traveling instances to add into a synthetic training dataset containing more evenly distributed traveling and non-traveling examples, we suggest using deep generative adversarial networks (Deep-GAN). Next, a deep neural network, or DNN, is trained on the synthetic dataset to predict which instances from a given stop in a certain time frame will travel and which ones won't. According to the findings, resolving the data imbalance problem may greatly enhance the predictive model's functionality and make it more accurate in predicting ridership profiles. The suggested strategy may create a synthetic training set with a better similarity so diversity and, therefore, a stronger prediction capability, according to a comparison of the Deep-GAN's performance with other conventional resampling techniques. The study emphasizes the importance of the issue and offers helpful recommendations for enhancing the quality of the data and model performance for individual travel behavior analysis and travel behavior prediction.