Impact of Export and Import on 40 years Economic Growth in the Philippines

Abstract

The Philippine economy, as a newly industrialized country, remained to be resilient and competitive enough to be one of the five growth performers in the region. As the country grows, it faces greater challenges towards its aim for development. Same way as other developing nations, the Philippines still experience a trade deficit. This situation in the economy must take into consideration seeing that the balance of trade is considered as one of the key components in measuring the relative strength of the country’s economy.

This research investigates the association between export, imports, and economic growth in the Philippines. The study collected trade balance indicators and economic output for the period of 1978 to 2017. The unit root test was employed to test the presence of unit root at level and first difference. Vector Autoregression analysis was used to the relationship exist among variables. The result determined that the past value of imports have a significant impact on the Economic Output measured in terms of GDP. On the export side, the Wald test statistics showed that the previous values of export jointly could influence the Gross Domestic Output. These results provide evidence that exports and imports can influence economic growth in the Philippines.