A Decision-Making Modellingin Probabilistic ConditionUsingMonte-carloand Decision Tree AnalysisonUpstream Petroleum Business Development

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Novan Hendriwibowo, Muhammad Asrol, Taufik Yuniardi, Ahmad Musofa, Yayan Sudiarta

Abstract

The upstream oil and gas industry has high risks, uncertainties and capital costs. An investment decision-making
model that considers risk and uncertainty analysis is needed to review the potential advantages and disadvantages of each
development scenario. In this study, a risk and sensitivity analysis was carried out to gain an understanding of the decision
problem, then the Monte-carlo simulation and decision tree were applied to obtain the best scenario for the development
upstream oil and gas business. From sensitivity analysis it is found that oil prices and production have the most dominant
influence on NPV. In this research, monte-carlo simulation and decision tree can be combined to improve the quality of
analysis and it is hoped that decision makers will have a complete picture with the proposed approach.

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